First Quarter Longboat Key Condo Sales Slide for 3rd Season in a Row

The information in this post pertains to Longboat Key Condominium market ZIP code 34228 for the periods indicated. All data is from the My Florida Regional MLS.

Longboat Key Condo Sales

Condominium sales are slumping on Longboat Key. Sales were down 3.4% in 2016 compared to 2015. Existing condominiums sales (sales excluding the 26 new construction sales) were down 10.2%. 2016 also marked the 3rd consecutive year where sales were less than the prior year. This year looks to be worse than any of the past three, with sales through March down 21% compared to the same period in 2016. From an historical standpoint, the 66 sales recorded this season were the lowest since 2010.

The odd part is that condominium sales in other parts of the area are moving in the opposite direction. Downtown Sarasota and Siesta Key condo sales were up 29% and 32%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2017 compared to 2016.  Across the entire county of Sarasota, first quarter condo sales were up 8.6% over 2016. Even single family home sales on Longboat Key are up 33% in the first quarter compared to 2016.

Longboat Key First Quarter Condo Sales 2007-2017

Longboat Key First Quarter Condo Sales 2007-2017

With a near fixed supply of condominiums (only about 130 units constructed since the year 2000), you wouldn’t expect big swings in sales. A small, single digit increase or decrease each year would seem normal. But now, we are heading into 4 years of declining sales, and this year is looking like a double digit drop.

Longboat Key Condominium Inventory is on the rise

Average inventory levels have increased over the past 2 seasons. Given the low levels of inventory in prior years, the increase was not all that unwelcome. The 2017 average seasonal inventory was about 295 listings. The 2015 and 2016 average seasonal levels were low, at just 214 and 223, respectively. However, as shown in the chart below, sales have not only continued to decline as inventory climbed, but the rate of sales decline has accelerated. Average inventory during the winter season in 2016 was slightly higher than 2015, yet existing condominium sales dropped over 10%. This year, inventory climbed by nearly a third from an average of 230 in 2016 to 302 in 2017. Yet, sales were still down 21% for the season.

This odd, inverse relationship between sales and inventory is the way things have worked over the past 15 years. During the build-up in inventory prior to the crash, sales started to slide. Sales hit the floor about the same time inventory peaked. Then as the recovery started, sales started to grow and inventory dropped.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Longboat Key Condominium Prices

The hidden piece to this puzzle is price. Prices have been rising since late 2011. This phenomenon of both prices and inventory rising is a sure sign prices have risen too fast. When prices increase too fast, sales start to slow. Also, as prices rise, more owners are encouraged to sell, so more homes come on the market. The combination of fewer sales and more listings causes inventory to rise. While painfully low levels of inventory can crimp sales, large quantities of inventory do not drive more sales, especially if the inventory is priced above the price the market will pay.

Consider the charts below. The charts compares sales and inventory by price point for the first quarter of 2012 and 2017. Note the differences across years at the 0-500k level. This bottom tier of pricing accounted for 56 of the 92 sales in the first quarter of 2012 (61% of all sales). The average inventory available for sale during those 3 months was 222 listings. For 2017, sales had dropped to just 31 and average inventory to just 117. Total inventory dropped from 375 to 304 or about 19%, but in the most popular price point on the Key, inventory was reduced almost 50% from 222 to 117. The 105 listing decrease is greater than the overall decrease in inventory.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is more than just a shortage of lower priced units the market. Rather, it is huge chunks of inventory being priced out of the lowest range (i.e., the 2012 $475,000 condos moving to $525,000 range in 2017).  You can see from the chart below this has been a gradual process since 2011.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The trouble, for now, anyway, is the budget for the pool of buyers has not increased as fast as this appreciation or much of the inventory that moved up in price was not worthy of the increase. This big shift in pricing has created a big bulge in inventory at the $500-1 million price range.

Also note these price point ranges are just arbitrary. Asking price has moved up inside and at the boundaries of these ranges. Just because a home might be priced under $500k doesn’t mean it will sell at $450,000 if the fair price is $400,000. Overall asking prices seem too high and will likely have to come down, at least in the under $1 million price points.

Finally, please read my article on the first quarter single family home update for Longboat Key. In particular take a look at the first chart which shows first quarter sales and inventory chart for the SFR market and note how it differs from the condo chart. The general movement of both sales and inventory is up. Additionally sales in the SFR market set a 10 year high this year for the first quarter.

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First Quarter 2017 Home Sales On Longboat Key Set 10 Year Record

The information in this post pertains to Longboat Key ZIP code 34228 single family home sales for the periods indicated. All data is from the My Florida Regional MLS for the time periods mentioned.

 

First quarter single family homes sales on Longboat Key in 2017 were a 10 year high of 32 homes. First quater sales have averaged about 23% of the total year.

Longboat Key Single Family Home Sales

Longboat Key First Quarter Sales and Average Inventory 2007-2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If that holds up this year, then 2017 then we would push the 140 home sales mark on the year which would be a 10 year record (if not longer).  With only about 1830 single family homes on the key, that would mean that over 7.5% of all homes turned over this year.

Longboat Key Single Family Home Sales

Longboat Key Single Family Homes Sales by Year 2007-2016

Nearly half of all sales traded between $500k and $1M with the median price being $920. The median price for the first quarter last year was 962k.  While people certainly spent more per home last year than this year, I does not necessarily hold true that prices are falling. To determine that you have to look at what each group received for the money. For example, in 2016 when the median transaction price was higher, 83% of the sales were on water (canal, gulf, or bay). In 2017, when the median price was lower, only 71% of the sales were on water. Just looking at this one statistic, buyers received more home for the $ in 2016 than 2017.

Family Home Sales by Price Range 2017 and 2016

Longboat Key Single Family Home Sales by Price Range 2017 and 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other facts from this seasons sales:

  • Almost a third of the sales were in Bay Isles (10 of the 32 sales) while Country Club Shores accounted for another quarter (8 of the 32 total)
  • Half of the homes sold this season were built before 1980, which mirrors the overall composition of homes on the Key.
  • The highest priced sale was a 6,500 sf home in the Harbor section of Bay Isles that closed for $4,625,000.
  • The lowest priced sale was an 884 sf home in the Village that closed for $300,000.
  • Canal front sales ranged from 661,000 to 2,250,000. The only gulf front property to sell was a 6 cottage motel on less than an acre of property. The sale price was $3,800,000.

For an update on the Longboat condominium market, click here.

Downtown Sarasota Condo Market – Top Five Signs It’s Still a Seller’s Market

The information in this post pertains to Downtown Sarasota Condominium sales for the 12 months ending 9/30/16 (current year/ period) and 9/30/15 (previous year/period). All data is from the My Florida Regional MLS for the time periods mentioned, ZIP code 34228 (Downtown Sarasota), and condo property style.

Demand for Downtown Sarasota Condos is increasing

The raw numbers show sales over the past year were down 1%, compared to the previous year (329 TY vs 332 LY). As mentioned in other updates, delayed closings on new construction sales more than account for this shortfall. As of 9/30/16, there were 36 pending sales on new construction residences, where the contract date was in the current year.

While these properties were placed under contract during the current period, they will not close nor be reported as a sale until the building is ready for occupancy. The contracts, however, represent true demand during the period, even though they are not reflected in the sales figures. There are also 28 pending sales from the prior period, which understated demand during that year.  If pending sales were added into total sales for both years, then 2016 sales would be higher than 2015 by 1% (365 TY vs 360 LY).

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Click box to see current Downtown Sarasota Condominiums listed for sale by price point

 Under $500k    $500k-$1,000k    $1,000k-$2,000k    over $2,000k

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 The Median Sale Price of a Downtown Sarasota Condo is increasing

The median sale price of a downtown Sarasota condominium increased 14% from $442k last year to $505k this year.  Across Sarasota County, the median price of a condo only increased 8% from $190k ly to $205k ty. Clearly, “buy low / sell high” works but not as well as “buy high/ sell higher.”

 

If nothing else, this shows not every property gets painted with the same brush as prices move up or down. Properties in the most desirable areas do better in both types of markets. When prices are appreciating, markets like downtown and the barrier islands will increase more than other areas. When prices are falling, they will take less of a hit.

Click to Download Recent Downtown Sarasota Condominium Sales Addresses/Prices

17th Floor 3BR 3.5BA + Den listing for sale in Alinari located in downtown Sarasota FL

17th Floor 3BR 3.5BA listing for sale in Alinari
$1,175,000. Click here to see all photos and learn more.

Downtown Sarasota Condos are Selling More Quickly

Another sign the market is heating up is the speed at which listings sell. Last year, 33% of all sales went to contract in 30 days or less. This year, 42% of all sales took 30 days or less to get a contract. Median days to contract for all sold listings dropped accordingly from 66 days last year to just 51 days this year (down 23%).

The Average Listing Sells Very Near the List Price

Last year, the average downtown condo sold for 95% of final listing price, which is great. However, in the prior 12 months, that figure has bounced up another point to 96%, which is phenomenal.

9th floor 2BR 2BA + den residence in Alinari condominium, located in Sarasota FL

9th floor 2BR 2BA + den residence in Alinari.
$495,000 Click image to see all pictures and learn more

Most Downtown Sarasota Condos sell for Cash

Two thirds of all sales in both periods sold for cash (no financing). This is another attribute of the downtown market that supports property values. When the market crashes or interest rates rise, the owners in the downtown market will feel less pressure than those areas where more homes are mortgaged.

Longboat Key Condo Inventory September 2016

New Construction Condo Sales Accounts for All Condo Sales Growth on Longboat Key

Longboat Key Condominium Sales Volume

Longboat Key condo sales were up 4% in the current period, compared to the previous year. New construction sales accounted for 26 sales, about an 8% increase over the previous year. The price points for new construction sales ranged from $2.9 M to $5.1M. Given that only 5 resales closed for more $2.9 M or more, with the highest being $4.2M, it is unlikely these sales took much away from the resale market. That means resales on the Key dropped about 4% during the year.

Click to Download Recent Longboat Key Condominium Sales Addresses/Prices

Looking at sales by price point confirms this. The decrease in sales came from the under $1 M price point (down 10%). If anything, new construction brought more lookers to the Key in the higher price points, as the resales priced over $2 M increased by 50% (from 12 last year to 18 this year).

lbkcondo-upd-92016-salesvnewlists

Longboat Key Condominium New Listings

New Longboat Key condominium listings increased to 491 during the current period, compared to 404 during the previous year, for a 21% increase. While the under $1 M price point showed the smallest increase in listings, there were still 19% more listed this period than last, implying a shortage of inventory was not to blame for the fall in sale.

Median Sales Price- Longboat Key Condominium Sales

The median sales price increased to $575,000 for the current period, compared to $510,000 for the previous period or about 12.7%. The high values of the 26 new construction sales (ranging from $2.9M to $5.1M) accounted for more than $50,000 of the increase. Without new construction sales, the median price would have come in at $525,000 or just a 2.9% increase.

Longboat Key Condo Median Sale Price

Longboat Key Condo Median Sale Price

Unsold Longboat Key Condominium Inventory at September 30th

Unsold inventory at the end of September stood at 180 listings, up 50% over the 121 available for sale at the end of September 2015. The increase is largely the result of an increase in new listing offset by a few more sales and expired/withdrawn listings.

Longboat Key Condo Inventory September 2016

While the increase looks huge, it’s only because of the unusually low inventory on-hand during the second half of 2015. The 121 listings available for sale last September was a 10-year record low for any month. If you compare 2016 to the number of unsold listing on-hand at the end of September 2013 and 2014 (190 and 172, respectively), things look more normal.

The median asking price of ending inventory dropped 11.7% to $849k at the end of September 2016 from $961 at the end of 2015.

 

 

 

 


Click box to see current Longboat Key Condominiums listed for sale by price point

Under $500k    $500k-$1,000k    $1,000k-$2,000k    over $2,000k


Other Miscellaneous Longboat Key Condominium Stats

  • During the current period, 34% of all listings that sold were on the market for 30 days or less. In the previous period, only 24% of listings were on the market for 30 days or less.
  • Median days on the market for a sold listing was 69 this year, compared to 89 last year.
  • The average listing sold for 96% of the listing price this year, compared to 95% last year.
  • There were 5 distressed sales (foreclosure or short sale) this year, compared to 12 last year.
  • Expired and withdrawn listings totaled 119 this year or about 24% of all new listings, compared to 104 last year or 25% of all new listings.

Downtown Sarasota Condos – What You Get for Under $1 Million

All of the data used in this post were obtained from the My Florida Regional MLS for condominium SALES in the downtown Sarasota Area. I used all condo sales in ZIP Code 34236 on the east side of the Ringling Bridge for calendar year 2016 through the end of August.

 

The Smaller Side of Downtown Sarasota Condominiums

If you are just looking for a nice place to enjoy Sarasota and get away for the winter, maybe a 1 BR condo is all that you need. As shown below, there have been 23 sales in the category over the past 8 months with prices ranging from $120,000 to $437,000. The limit we are discussing here is up to $1,000,000 but no 1/1 sold for any higher than the 437,500 in any event.

For a 1/1, the under $200,000 price point puts you in either an older (1957 built) building or something on the very edge of downtown, like Central Park in this case.

Downtown Sarasota Condominiums - Statistical Porifle of Sales Under $1 million

Downtown Sarasota Condominiums – Statistical Porifle of Sales Under $1 million

If your price point is in the 200’s to very low 300’s, you could end up with a large 1BR/1BA (800-1000 square feet) residence with 1-2 garage parking spots on a low floor in the Renaissance (750 TamiamiTrl). Also for a mid-200’s price, you might be able to find a 675 sf unit in one of Sarasota’s most nostalgic buildings, the Frances-Carlton. Walk through the building and you will think you are a character in Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby. And for a good reason, the building opened about the time the book was published.

To see all 2BR/2BA and larger condominiums currently listed for sale under $500,000 in Downtown Sarasota, click here.

The mid 300’s to mid-400’s represents the highest selling prices for anything smaller than a 2/2. For this price, you can get a nice-sized residence in the heart of downtown (like in1350 Main where the highest priced sales was located) or direct bay view in either Alinari or Renaissance (on the Trail).

To download the complete list of sales for all 1BR/1BA condominiums that sold in downtown Sarasota for the 8 months ended August 31, 2016, click here.

The Most Popular and Abundant Downtown Sarasota Condonimium- 2 Bedroom/2 Bath Models

The 2/2 floor plan is by far the most popular downtown, accounting for almost 72% of all condominium sales during the 8 month period. You could say that the majority of them sell since they comprise the bulk of the total supply downtown. This is true, but the 2/2’s suck up more than their share of sales as only about 60% of all downtown Sarasota condominium residences are 2/2’s.

To see all 2BR/2BA and larger condominiums currently listed for sale between $500,000 adn $1,000,000 in Downtown Sarasota, click here.

Your best bet under $300,000 is going to be Central Park, located on the southern edge of the ZIP code in the 800 block of South Trail. Dolphin Tower could also have a listing in this price range. In the $300,000 – $400,000 range, try looking in Broadway Promenade, CityscapeGulfstream Towers, or the Renaissance. Note that the under $400,000 listing price comprised only a third of the 2/2 sales, so don’t expect a huge selection in any one building. These listing are going to be peppered around downtown.

To download the complete list of sales for all 2BR/2BA condominiums that sold in downtown Sarasota for the 8 months ended August 31, 2016, click here.

Things open up considerably in the $400,000-$600,000 price point. You could find a nice residence in Alinari , Sunset Tower100 CentralPalm Place, or Regency House.  The over $600,000 price might be found and Alinari1350 MainBay Plaza, Lawrence Point (i , ii, and iii), One Watergate,  Condo on the Bay (888 and 988), or Essex House.

The 3 Bedroom Models – a Rare Find under $1 Million

There were only 15 sales of 3 bedroom models during the period. Six of them were in Rivo, and they were sold for between $500,000 and $550,000. At the upper end of the price range, watch Bay Plaza as it was the second largest source of 3BR sales with 3 selling at prices between 650,000 and 950,000. Other sales were scattered throughout downtown.

To download the complete list of sales for all 3BR condominiums that sold in downtown Sarasota for the 8 months ended August 31, 2016, click here.

 

Longboat Key Real Estate – What you get for $500k

 

Depending on where you come from and how much attention you pay  to prices of homes, you will either be pleasantly surprised or disappointed by what you are going to read here. If you are looking for a single family home, the best news I can give you is that you may get one  depending on the specific homes on the market at the time, and/or how long you are willing to wait. If a condominium will work, then you may likely have a better selection, but largely limited to older buildings.

The data  below is from the My Florida Regional MLS for All single family home sales under $500,000 in ZIP code 34228 for 6 months ended July 31, 2016. I used sales (as opposed to active listings) because the current lack of inventory and fast rate of sale would make the analysis relevant for a very short period of time and skewed towards the current inventory. For example (just as you will see below), only 7 single family homes have been sold for less than $500,000 in the past 6 months. If individually they  took 30 days to go to contract, then there would be on average about 0 to 3 such homes on the market at any point in time. As of the time of writing this, there are  3 such homes on the market, but none of them is canal-front. This might lead you to believe that you can’t buy a canal-front home for under $500,000, but in the past 6 months, 3 canal front homes have been sold. Even though prices are steadily moving up (and older canal-front homes are being torn down and replaced with bigger, newer, more costly homes), it is likely that a canal-front home will still come on the market priced under $500,000 in the coming month or so.

Longboat Key Single Family Homes Under $500,000

Only 7 single family homes have been sold for less than $500,000 in the past 6 months. That represents about 12.5% of all homes selling during that time. In the graphic below, I have tried to outline a statistical picture of what the sub-$500k sales looked like:

Longboat Key Home Sales

Profile of single family homes that have sold on Longboat Key during 8 months ended 8/31/2015

The $299,000 sale was a collection of 3 separate living units built in 1953 on a 6,000 sf lot. It was an unusual property at an unusually good price. The last time a single family home was sold on Longboat for under $300,000 was in December, 2013. With prices going up, don’t to see this again.

Click here to see all currently listed homes on Longboat Key with asking prices under $500,000

Four homes were sold for under $400,000 in the past 6 months. In 2015, 6 homes were sold (12 months). Therefore, the 4 homes is not a fluke and just like the under 300k homes, should start to evaporate.

Best Bets for Longboat Key Single Family Homes Under $500,000

Your best bet on getting a single family home under $500,000 on Longboat Key is going to be in the Village. Longbeach Village is located on the very north end of key and features a diverse collection of small homes, cottages, and bungalows. While there are a handful of larger and newer homes (all well over the $500k mark), most of the homes are older and on the small side. The Village was one of the first communities on the Key and accordingly, has some of the oldest homes  dating back into the 1940’s and earlier.

 Click here to download details on each of the single family home sales

Longboat Key Condominiums Under $500,000

There are considerably more options in the Longboat Key condominium market in the under $500,000 price point. In the 6 months ended 7/31/2016, 94 condominiums were sold for less than $500k. This represents about 40% of all Longboat Key condo sales during the period.

The graphic below gives you a statistical profile of the sales.

Statistical Profile of Longboat Key Condominium Sales Under $500k

Statistical Profile of Longboat Key Condominium Sales Under $500k

While the stats on the left are for all condos that sold for less than $500,000 during the period, 2 bedroom and 2 bath models are by far the most popular.

South of Publix, the lowest priced 2 BR/2+ BA to sell was a 1,068 sf residence in Seaplace and was sold for $345,000 (1978 build). The listing was for a 4th floor garden view in a building that backed to Gulf of Mexico Drive. North of Publix, the lowest priced 2 BR/2+ BA to sell was a 1,080 sf residence in Longboat Arms (1971 build), and was  sold for $215,000.

Inside Longboat Key Club, the lowest priced 2 BR/2+ BA to sell was a 1,941 sf residence in Sands Point (1966 build) that closed for $434,500.In Bay Isles, the lowest priced 2 BR/2+ BA condo to sell was a 1,598 sf town home in Fairway Bay that closed for $380,000.

Click here to see all Longboat Key condominiums for sale with asking prices under $500k

Best Bets for Longboat Key Condos under $500,000

The Longboat Key condo options under $500,000 are much better than the single family home options. Yet, the condominium will likely be on the older side, probably from 30 years old and above. You should have no problem finding a 2BR/2+BA around 1,100 sf condo on the Gulf side of Gulf of Mexico Dr. If you want south of Publix, focus on  Seaplace and BeachPlace. In Longboat Key Club, watch Privateer and Sands Point.  If you want Gulf side on the north end under $500 and at least 1,000 sf, look in  Sea Pines, Longbeach, and Whitney Beach.

Click here to download details on each of the condominium sales

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mid Year 2016 Condominium Market Updates for Downtown Sarasota, Longboat Key, and West Bradenton

As with last month, sale are still down or not very robust in all areas with new construction. The sales shortfall is mainly because of the way new construction condominium sales work. The normal course for a resale listing (ie not new construction) is that the property is listed, goes to contract, and 30-60 days later closes. It is at closing that the listing is considered “sold”. For new construction, the listing goes from active to under contract during construction or even pre-construction. It stays at that status until the building is completed and ready for occupancy at which time all of the contracts close (and are reported as sold) in a matter of a few weeks.  So new construction isn’t so much as causing sales to be down but just delaying the timing of when the sale gets reported. The effect it to cram 18-24 months of “what would have been sales if the they were resales” into a single month.  If everything closes as it is supposed to in Downtown Sarasota, this will be a record year for condo sales downtown.

 

 

 

 

Longboat Key Condos-Top 5 in Appreciation Since 2011

By the first quarter of 2012, prices in most US markets started to move upward, breaking a five year down trend and officially ending the “Great Real Estate Crash of the 21st Century”. Following this trend, home prices have made a steady climb. Between December 2011 and December 2015, the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index increased 31%. The Case-Shiller HPI for the Miami and Tampa markets (the only two Florida markets followed by Case-Shiller), increased 48% and 41% respectively. I thought it would be fun to look back and see how prices did on Longboat Key.

Case-SHiller Miami, Tampa, US National 12/2011-12/2015

Case-Shiller HPI Miami, Tampa, US National Dec 2011-Dec 2015 Source:Standard and Poors Case Shiller Home Price Index

There are a number of ways you could do this, but none would come close to the validity accredited to Case-Shiller’s “Repeat Sales, 3month rolling average” methodology. The methodology that I used requires a couple of sentences to explain rather than the 43-page explanation, provided by Case-Shiller and suffers proportionately in the statistical validity department. However, the results are more interesting, at least to my readers.

Through my methods, I am able to compare the average sales price per square foot in each building from 2011 sales with those in 2015 sales. I do so by moving the validity needle from laughable to just ridiculous, only considered buildings where there were at least four sales in both 2011 and 2015. Differences like view, decor and floor I summarily ignored in the interest of completing this post while I was still living.

Top 5 Longboat Key Condominiums with Largest Average Price Increases per Square Foot  2011-2015

All data is from My Florida MLS and Realist tax data for the building and time period indicated. Sales per square foot is calculated by dividing the sales price by the heated space in the residence. Average sales per square foot in the buildings was calculated by dividing the total of all sales prices for the period by the total square feet of heated space for  all residences sold during that same period. I use the terms building and condominium community interchangeably. In other words, a building refers to a condominium community whether it is comprised of a single building or numerous buildings. All references to “increases in prices” means increases in the average sales per square foot. 

 

#5 – Promenade +37%   

Promenade is a South Key Gulf front building constructed in 1985. Prices here jumped 37% between 2011 and 2015 from $336/sf to $460/sf. There were 8 sales in 2011 with sales per square foot ranging $259/sf-$402/sf. For 2015, there were 6 sales but the range jumped to $356/sf-$563/sf.

#4 – Sanctuary +38%

The Sanctuary a South Key Gulf front community built in 1989-1990. In 2011, sales prices averaged $401/sf., rising 38% by 2015 to $552/sf. The details show that it isn’t just a couple of big sales driving the average up. In 2011, there were 8 sales ranging from $303/sf to $482/sf. During 2015, there were again 8 sales but the entire range moved up to $397/sf-$711/sf.

#3 – Beachplace +39%Beachplace

Beachplace is a south Key community built in the late ’70s and early 80’s. It is located on the Gulf side of Gulf of Mexico Dr. next door to the Promenade. However, not all buildings are Gulf front or have Gulf views. The average sales price per square foot in Beachplace increased from $343/sf to $476/sf between 2011 and 2015. The range of sale prices moved from $293/sf-$433/sf in 2011 (17 sales) to $341/sf-$660/sf in 2015 (21 sales).
Players club

#2 – Players Club +44%

Continuing the south Key trend is Players Club. Players club is two doors north of Promenade. Here, sales prices per square foot increased 44% from $341/sf in 2011 to $492/sf in 2015. The range jumped form $230/sf to $463/sf in 2011 t0 $334/sf -$607/sf in 2015.

Click HERE to download sales from 2015 and 2016 for all condominium communities on Longboat Key

Windward bay#1 – Windward Bay +56%

After four south Key/Gulf front runner ups, the big winner turns out to be a mid-key and bay front community. Windward Bay is a collection of mid-70’s era buildings where most of the individual residences are 1100-1300 sf.  The average sales price per foot went from $181 in 2011 (8 sales) to $282 in 2015 (13 sales) for an increase of 55.8%. In 2011, 5 of the 8 sales were under $200 with the highest sale being $365k.  In 2015, only 2 sales took place under $300 and the highest 3 were over $400k with the highest being $429k. The range of sale prices went from $92/sf-$333/sf in 2011 to $210/sf-$355/sf in 2015.

How other Longboat Key Condo Communities Fared

Here are how a few other places compared. If the rate of changes is foot noted with (L), that means limited (less than 4) sales in either 2011 or 2015.

North Longboat Key

The Shore +2%(L) ~  Whitney Beach  +19% ~ Longboat Terrace +42%(L) ~Longbeach +50%(L)

Bay Isles

Grand Bay +18% ~ Fairway Bay +25% ~Harbour Oaks +32%

Longboat Key Club

Privateer +21%

Just remember that these results are just changes in average sales prices per square foot. A different mix of residences between years, can mean a huge swing in price (i.e. more direct beach view sales in one year than another) and wouldn’t reflect the general rate of appreciation within the community. You certainly should NOT try to use these results to project a sales price for your residence. If you have any questions about a possible sales price for your residence, just call me at 941-545-8706 or click the Email Scott link above. You can also try out the instant home valuation button on the right.

5 Pictures that Will Make You Plan a Summer Trip to Sarasota-Bradenton Area

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Sunset June 28, 2016 #sunset #anna Maria island

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Sunrise at New Pass #New_Pass #Longboat_Key #Lido_Shores #Lighthouse_Point

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Sunrise over downtown Sarasota from City Island June 24, 2016 #City-Island #Sarasota #Lido-Key #Longboat-Key #Sunrise

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Another spring day #Longboat_Key #Longboat_Pass

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Sunshine Skyway shot between the branches of a million year old seagrape #Robinson-Preserve #Bradenton #Sunshine-Skyway

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6 Signs that the Longboat Key Condominium Market is a Sellers Market

Longboat Key is currently experiencing a great seller’s market. While there a many ways you can define a seller’s market, they all get down to 4 facts:

  1. Inventory levels are low, creating few options for the buyer
  2. Prices are increasing such that if the buyer misses an opportunity, the next opportunity will likely be more expensive.
  3. Properties are selling so fast that the seller knows he need not jump on the first offer that comes along. If one deal doesn’t work out, the next one will and possibly at a higher price.
  4. Both parties are aware of these facts and rightly assume the other party is as well.

This doesn’t mean that the seller can ask for and receive any price he wants. There is still a long trail of expired listings to prove that the asking price matters. However, it does mean that you should generally be able to sell your condominium at a higher sales price than the price at which comparable residences were exchanged last year, if not last quarter and do so with less than 60 days of marketing time. Here’s why-

1. Unit sales of condominiums on Longboat Key have increased 13% over 2015

Through the end of May this year, 166 condominium residences have sold compared to 147 at this time last year. Ironically, the difference of 19 sales is exactly the number of new construction sales included in this year’s sales figure. All 11 of the residences in Infinity  closed during April and May (average price of $3.6M) while 8 of the 16 Aria residences also closed April and May (average price of $3.9M). Another 3 closed the first week of June (after the May 31st cutoff date for this report).

The new construction sales were at a considerably higher median sale price ($3.7M) than the 147 resale transactions ($571k) so far this year. There were only 4 resales with a higher sales price than the lowest priced new construction sale. Additionally the total sales dollars from the 19 new construction sales were an amazing 60% of total sales dollars from the other 147 sales during the year ($70M from the 19 new construction sales and $117M from the 147 resales).

 

Longboat Key Condominium Market Stats for Year-to-date May 2016 and 2015

Longboat Key Condominium Market Stats for Year-to-date May 2016 and 2015

2. The median sale price of a condominium sold on Longboat Key rose 12% from 2015.

Overall, the median sale price increased from $565k during the first 5 months of last year to $632k this year for an increase of 12%. Admittedly, most of the increase came from the 19 new construction sales. The median sales price on resales increased 1% comparing to $571k from $565k.

The latest Case-Shiller results have home prices increasing 5% nationally, 8% in the Tampa market, and 6% in the Miami market year-over-year. I have to believe the level of appreciation on the Key is somewhere in that range, which says that the sales mix between the time periods had a negative effect on prices.

In other words, this year’s batch of resales was comparatively inferior to the prior year’s (i.e. smaller residences, more dated, fewer water views, older, etc). I mention this because all of the rate of sale statistics improved over the year.

 

3. Very few Longboat Key condominiums available for sale.

At the end of May 2016, there were 196 unsold condominiums listed for sale. This compares with 162 at this time last year for a 21% increase. But, as shown in the end of year figures below, 196 active listings is still very low. While not shown on the chart below, the inventory levels in May of 2013 and 2014 were 258 and 216, respectively..

Longboat Condos Active Listings

4. About 31% of condominium sales this year went to contract in 30 days or less.

I think the most telling statistic about the strength of the market is that almost a third (31%) of all listings that sold only required 30 days or less of marketing time. That is 50% better than last year’s 21% at the end of May. As shown in the chart below, if the 31% holds for the rest of the year, it will break all records by at least 4 percentage points.

Longboat Condos sales under 30

5. Median Days-on-Market decreased to 64 days.

For the first 5 months of this year, median marketing time for sold listings was 27% less than last year. Another way of saying this is that sellers are getting an acceptable contract about 3 weeks sooner from the date of listing than they did last year. As it turns out, 2015 was a 10-year low for this statistic, so beating that figure by 3 weeks is saying something. While it took 88 days on the market to sell a listing in May, by year’s end the median had dropped to just 75 days. 2016 will likely break this record.

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Longboat Condos Median Days on Market - 10 year chart

6. The Sale-Price-to-Listing-Price ratio is at a 10 year high

This year, sellers are getting 95% of their original asking price  compared to just 92% in 2015. There isn’t much room for improvement left here, but suffice it to say that 95% is a high and very healthy number. To clarify, this is not 95% of the final asking price, one that may have been reduced, but rather 95% of the original listing price.

 

Sales Price to List Price

To recap, unsold inventory, while not at the floor, is still at historically low levels. The average marketing time for a sale is at a 10 year low with nearly a third of all sales requiring less than 30 days of marketing time (10 year high). If priced correctly, you can expect to sell for about 95% of you asking price (10 year high). Case-Shiller reports that home prices in Tampa, Miami, and across the nation are at the highest levels since the crash. Prices on Longboat Key are undoubtedly behaving in a similar fashion. So there you have it – inventory low, homes selling quickly, and prices moving up- a perfect market to sell.
If you have been considering the sale of your Longboat Key condominium residence or have experienced a recent failed attempt at selling and want went wrong, call me at 941-545-8706 for a no obligation consultation.

 

Any questions? Call Scott at 941-545-8706 or click the email Scott link above.