Category Archives: Longboat Key Real Estate Statistics

New Sarasota Real Estate Contracts Week 49

This post summarizes new real estate contracts for certain areas within Sarasota and Manatee Counties for the week indicated. New Contracts (or Pending Sales) are the best measure of current demand.

Nothing ever exciting happens this close to year end. It is always a slow, below average week for activity. This week was really the same as last year if you deduct the 10 closings in the Vue that were booked this week (See the Nov. 4 Pending Report post on why the contracts were really deals from prior months).

Sarasota Real Estate Contracts -Week 49 2017

Sarasota Real Estate Contracts -Week 49 2017

Click here to download pdf

Pending Report for Week Ended 11/25/2017

Another huge week for contracts around the area.

Activity in the past 4 weeks accounts for all of the increase in contracts this quarter over last year – more than making up for any lost deals during the first 2 weeks of the period that occurred due to hurricane Irma.  Every area except west Bradenton condos (down 4%) is up double digits over last year for the most recent 13 week period.

 

Contracts signed by zip code for Sarasota/Bradenton during week ended 11/25/2017

Pending Report 11/25/2017

Click here to download report as a pdf

Pending Report for 11/11/2017

Generally a slow week compared to last year. The contracts reported in Downtown Sarasota last week probably overstate demand by 50% as 9 of the 18 new contracts were recorded in the Vue. Most likely these contracts were actually executed much earlier. See my notes from the 11/4/2017 report for an explanation. The same issue is affecting both the 4 week and 13 week figures.

Click to download as a pdf

Pending Report for November 4, 2017

This was a big week everywhere but none looking as big as downtown Sarasota. The figures for this year are distorted from 9 listings in the VUE closing this week and being entered in MLS for the first time.  In most large new construction projects, only a few sample listings are maintained in MLS. This keeps MLS manageable and from being overrun, so to speak, by a single building. If all of the VUE listings were entered from the project start, Zillow would be a mess with every other listing being in the VUE.

click here to download as pdf

When listings that were not previously entered in MLS eventually close, the listings are often entered in MLS at closing for agent/broker credit (as was the case with these listings). The listings still have to go through the same MLS progression. The contract date, listing date and sale date are entered the day of closing giving each the same date.  Undoubtedly all 9 of the new construction listings went to contract much earlier, perhaps even in previous years. Again, there is nothing wrong with this, you just have to be aware of it as you study the results. Demand Downtown was not up 1300% last week. (Another unavoidable side result of this is that the days on market stat will be ZERO for all such listings – be leery of any broker or agent including new construction sales in their quoted days on market performance).

Get ready for many weeks like this as loads new construction starts to close.

Another interesting thing to watch with regard to new construction closings, is how much of it ends up back on the market. I will try to highlight that for you.

Tax Appreciation Rates on Longboat Key Condos

As in the Sarasota property tax article I posted last month, this post analyzes the change in the Property Appraiser-determined Just Values (market values before any exemptions or Save Our Homes cap) between 2015 and 2016 (latest available data). The Property Appraiser equates Just Value with market value. Since the valuations are always AS OF January 1 of the tax year, the change in value discussed relates to calendar year 2015 (the change in value that occurred between January 1, 2015 and January 1, 2016).  The 2017 valuation should be finalized later this year.

Also in the Sarasota post, I characterized the Property Appraisers valuation as good as any I could have derived, at least in a reasonable amount of time.  The Florida PA offices revalue every property every year using a mass evaluation technique.  The process is to assign a value to large sections of land and then use statistical techniques to allocate that value across individual parcels with each section. At first, the methodology sounds rough, especially compared to the typical Realtor® market analysis approach, where recent sales are analyzed and adjusted based on differences between the homes being sold and the subject property. Furthermore, the big swings in appreciation rates between buildings and across years in the schedule below cast doubt on the validity of using the Property Appraiser’s valuations for anything other than coming up with a tax bill.

However, consider that many condominium communities on Longboat don’t have a sale every year. In fact, of the 92 communities listed on the schedule below, only 70 had sales in 2016.  This means, for over 23% of the buildings, anyone appraising for any purpose would have to rely exclusively on sales in the surrounding area – much like what the PA office does. So wild swings or not, the PA calculations may be the best.

Whether the tax Just Value derived from the Property Appraisers’ approach is anywhere near the real market value is anyone’s guess. The same thing also can be said about the Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller numbers, generally the basis for all media reports of appreciation and taken as fact. They both are the result an estimation process.

In summary, the County PA offices figures (Just Value) are what I summarized below. I refer to the changes in value as appreciation as though it was a certifiable fact. You can make your own decision about the validity of calling this market appreciation. All references I make about appreciation here will be the year-over-year changes in Just Value.

Summary of Property Tax Just Value changes Longboat Key

The overall level of appreciation on Longboat Key condominiums during 2015 was 4.8%, down slightly from the 5.9% in 2014. Buildings on the west side of Gulf of Mexico Drive increased 5.2%, while those on the east side increased 3.7%. The Manatee end of the Key increased 8.6%, while the Sarasota end increased only 3.8%.

Other notes on the rate of change:

  • Condominiums in Bay Isles increased 3.6% or .8% better than other bayside communities on the Sarasota end.
  • Island-side condominiums in Longboat Key Club increased 2.2%, just a little more than half the average rate of all Sarasota-end communities on the west side of GOM.
  • The 2 age restricted communities changed as follows:
    • Case del Mar 8.3% or .5% points less than the average Manatee County west-side-of-GOM average.
    • Spanish Main 11.9% or about 4% points above the average Manatee County east-side –of-GOM average.

Percentage Change in Longboat Key Taxable Values by Condominium Building

This is the schedule I was referencing in the opening paragraph, regarding the variations between buildings and years. Some of the swings are hard to believe. Look at Harbour Links as an example.  In 2014, Just Values increased 56%, on average, in that community. The next year, they dropped 11%. It is hard to believe the market works this way.

Lonboat Key Changes in Tax Values by Buidling – click image to download complete list as 3 page pdf file

But it could. The only sale in Harbour Links during 2014 was for $425k, which worked out to $241/ft. The Just Value of this property on 1/1/2014 was $335k or $140/ft. The new valuation on 1/1/2015 came in at $596k or a 78% increase in Just Value.

To recap the history of this property:

1/1/2014   – Just Value is set at $317k ($132/ft)

6/19/2014 – sells for $425k ($177/ft)

1/1/2015    – Just value is set at $596k ($249/ft)

On the surface, it looks like the PA overshot the value. I am sure the new owner thought the same.

However, the next year (2015) saw 2 residences sell in Harbour Links for $576k and $528 ($241/ft and $334/ft), a range that makes the 1/1/2015 Just Value of $596/$249/ft for the 2014-sold-home seem more reasonable (effectively saying the buyer got a great deal).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pending Report as of August 12, 2017

Pending sale volume was mostly up last week compared to the same week last year with every area showing increased activity except condos on Longboat and single family homes in west Bradenton.

The past 4 weeks were mostly flat with last year with single family home sales in west Bradenton being the only significant exception. The problem here is lack of inventory. The level of unsold single family homes in west Bradenton dropped below 200 for only the 3rd time 3 years.

For the past 13 weeks every area showed increased activity other than the aforementioned west Bradenton market. Even areas with large amounts of new construction are having strong existing home sales growth. In downtown Sarasota, existing home sales were up 19% over last year while Lakewood Ranch was up 16%

Pending sales report for Sarasota, Bradenton, Lonboat Key

Pending sales as of 08/12/2017
Click image to enlarge. Click Here to download as pdf

 

Downtown Sarasota Pending Sales Up 40% Last 13 Weeks

Downtown Sarasota pending condominium sales are up 40% over last year for the past 13 week period. Existing home sales accounted for most of the increase, up some 36% over last year. New constructions sales for the past 13 week period were less than 10% of total sales

Longboat Key pending condo sales were up 13% over the past 4 weeks and 26% over the past 13 weels. Pending sales were down most of the season and worked their way back to even with last year by the end of April. Most of the increase came during June.

In the Lakewood Ranch area (not all homes in the 2 zip code area are in Lakewood Ranch) pending home sales were up 14% over last year for the past 13 week period. New home sales were flat  during this period so the entire increase came from resales. New construction pending sales are a much larger component of total sales than in Downtown Sarasota. For both 2017 and 2016, the last 13 weeks had 62 pending new construction sales or about a quarter of all home sales in the area.

 

Pending Report as of June 24, 2017

A strong May and June is making for a huge second quarter.

The West Bradenton condo market was down for the week and only up 1% for the past 13 weeks largely due to the lack of inventory. May ended with just 257 condominiums on the market, not world record but low none the less. Worse, however was the lack of new listings during May. Only 51 condos were listed during May in West Bradenton, the least amount in any month over the past 10 years.

The big quarter in Downtown Sarasota is being powered by resales. While new construction pendings were up big (10 this year vs only 1 LY), existing home sales were up 35% with huge increases in the over $1M price points.

Click here to download pdf of report.

PENDING REPORT JUNE 10, 2017

Pending sales (new contracts executed) are the best indication of current demand. The pending report provides a current week, 4-week, and 13-week view of this important statistic across 6 markets by price point range. The biggest difference between pendings and actual sales is timing. The contract or pending date is the date the contract was executed. The contract is not considered a “Sale” until it closes, on average, about 30 days after the contract date. Another difference is that not all pending sales close.

 

Pendings for the week ended June 10, 2017

Pendings (New Contracts) for Lonboat Key, Downtown Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, and West Bradenton ~ June 10, 2017

Pendings (New Contracts) for Lonboat Key, Downtown Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, and West Bradenton ~ June 10, 2017

This was another solid week, compared to last year, in nearly every area followed. Bad weather must have sent people shopping, rather than beaching.

The “over a million” price point in downtown continues to grow. For the past 13 weeks, pendings with prices over a million dollars amounted to 20% of the total. Last year, they accounted for only 16% of all pendings. For the past 4 weeks, the top of the market listings has accounted for 27% of all pendings Downtown, compared with only 8% last year.

Next Quarter

If you have your home on the market or are thinking about putting it on the market, it’s always interesting to look ahead at what the next few weeks may bring.  The consensus is that the third quarter is slow, but that’s not the case everywhere.

 

The chart shows last year’s percentage of pending sales by quarter.  There is surprisingly little seasonality in any of the markets, other than Longboat Key.  Even the Longboat Key condo market is not horrible. Last year, 66 condos went to contract in the 3rd quarter, compared to 91 in the 2nd quarter. That works out to about 22 per month in the third quarter, compared to 30 per month in the second quarter.  Next quarter should provide plenty of opportunity for a well- priced listing to find a buyer.

 

May 2017 Market Snapshots for Downtown Sarasota, Longboat Key, Lakewood Ranch and West Bradenton

Downtown Sarasota Condominium Market

Downtown Sarasota Condominium Market Stats ~ May 2017

Downtown Sarasota Condominium Market Stats ~ May 2017

Sales are up about 15% year-to-date with inventory down about 7%. Still, using the average monthly sales so far this year, there are almost 8 months of inventory on hand which would generally be considered a buyer’s market.

It has taken longer to sell a condo downtown this year with the median marketing time coming in at 73 days compared to 53 during this period last year. While there are not stats available on the median age of an active listing this time last year, the 134 day median age this year seems old, especially compared to the 73 day median marketing time.

As I mention every time I discuss the Downtown market, the new construction market is disguising the strength of the downtown market. New construction projects are taking contracts and reservations on new condominiums that will not close (nor considered a sale) until later this year and into 2018 and 2019.

Longboat Key Single Condominium Market

Longboat Key Condominium Market Stats ~May 2017

Longboat Key Condominium Market Stats ~May 2017

During May, condo sales on Longboat surpassed last year for the first time this year.  On paper, sales for the year are still down 21%. However if you remove the 16 new construction sales last year (as most were contracted during 2015), sales on existing homes are down about 14% year-to-date.

The good sales month along with lower amounts of new listings, large numbers of withdrawn and expired listings coming off the market improved inventory dramatically over last month.  At the end of May the market had about 7.7 months of supply.

LONGBOAT SINGLE FAMILY HOME MARKET

Longboat Key Single Family Home Market Stats ~May 2017

Longboat Key Single Family Home Market Stats ~May 2017

While sales here are up 20% year-to-date and inventory down about 12%, there is still a large amount of unsold inventory for the current rate of sales. Additionally median days to contract has ballooned from 89 days last year to 128 this year. The median marketing time for an unsold listing is currently 183 days.

Lakewood Ranch Single Family Homes

Lakewood Ranch Single Family Home Market Stats ~May 2017

Lakewood Ranch Single Family Home Market Stats ~May 2017

The first neighborhoods in the new Waterside Village are now taking lot reservations. Waterside is going to be huge with over 5000 homes. The property is about 5,500 acres with 80% left as open areas or lakes (mostly lakes). It is going to be hugely popular.  Initial home builders will include Arthur Rutenberg, Lee Wetherington, Homes by Towne, and Pulte.

 

West Bradenton Single Family Homes

West Bradenton Single Family Home Market Stats ~May 2017

West Bradenton Single Family Home Market Stats ~May 2017

One big month and everything looks rosy. May this year beat last year by almost 50%. Year-to-date sales are up by 7%. Unsold inventory dropped to just 216 listings or only about a 4 months supply.

 

West Bradenton Condominiums

West Bradenton Condominium Market Stats ~May 2017

West Bradenton Condominium Market Stats ~May 2017

Sales here are down about 12% from last year but mostly do to the lack of inventory, which now represents just over a 3 month supply. The median selling price of 158k is still a great value for winter visitors or small families.