Category Archives: Stats for Downtown Sarasota

Downtown Sarasota Pending Sales Up 40% Last 13 Weeks

Downtown Sarasota pending condominium sales are up 40% over last year for the past 13 week period. Existing home sales accounted for most of the increase, up some 36% over last year. New constructions sales for the past 13 week period were less than 10% of total sales

Longboat Key pending condo sales were up 13% over the past 4 weeks and 26% over the past 13 weels. Pending sales were down most of the season and worked their way back to even with last year by the end of April. Most of the increase came during June.

In the Lakewood Ranch area (not all homes in the 2 zip code area are in Lakewood Ranch) pending home sales were up 14% over last year for the past 13 week period. New home sales were flat  during this period so the entire increase came from resales. New construction pending sales are a much larger component of total sales than in Downtown Sarasota. For both 2017 and 2016, the last 13 weeks had 62 pending new construction sales or about a quarter of all home sales in the area.

 

Pending Report as of June 24, 2017

A strong May and June is making for a huge second quarter.

The West Bradenton condo market was down for the week and only up 1% for the past 13 weeks largely due to the lack of inventory. May ended with just 257 condominiums on the market, not world record but low none the less. Worse, however was the lack of new listings during May. Only 51 condos were listed during May in West Bradenton, the least amount in any month over the past 10 years.

The big quarter in Downtown Sarasota is being powered by resales. While new construction pendings were up big (10 this year vs only 1 LY), existing home sales were up 35% with huge increases in the over $1M price points.

Click here to download pdf of report.

PENDING REPORT JUNE 10, 2017

Pending sales (new contracts executed) are the best indication of current demand. The pending report provides a current week, 4-week, and 13-week view of this important statistic across 6 markets by price point range. The biggest difference between pendings and actual sales is timing. The contract or pending date is the date the contract was executed. The contract is not considered a “Sale” until it closes, on average, about 30 days after the contract date. Another difference is that not all pending sales close.

 

Pendings for the week ended June 10, 2017

Pendings (New Contracts) for Lonboat Key, Downtown Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, and West Bradenton ~ June 10, 2017

Pendings (New Contracts) for Lonboat Key, Downtown Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, and West Bradenton ~ June 10, 2017

This was another solid week, compared to last year, in nearly every area followed. Bad weather must have sent people shopping, rather than beaching.

The “over a million” price point in downtown continues to grow. For the past 13 weeks, pendings with prices over a million dollars amounted to 20% of the total. Last year, they accounted for only 16% of all pendings. For the past 4 weeks, the top of the market listings has accounted for 27% of all pendings Downtown, compared with only 8% last year.

Next Quarter

If you have your home on the market or are thinking about putting it on the market, it’s always interesting to look ahead at what the next few weeks may bring.  The consensus is that the third quarter is slow, but that’s not the case everywhere.

 

The chart shows last year’s percentage of pending sales by quarter.  There is surprisingly little seasonality in any of the markets, other than Longboat Key.  Even the Longboat Key condo market is not horrible. Last year, 66 condos went to contract in the 3rd quarter, compared to 91 in the 2nd quarter. That works out to about 22 per month in the third quarter, compared to 30 per month in the second quarter.  Next quarter should provide plenty of opportunity for a well- priced listing to find a buyer.

 

May 2017 Market Snapshots for Downtown Sarasota, Longboat Key, Lakewood Ranch and West Bradenton

Downtown Sarasota Condominium Market

Downtown Sarasota Condominium Market Stats ~ May 2017

Downtown Sarasota Condominium Market Stats ~ May 2017

Sales are up about 15% year-to-date with inventory down about 7%. Still, using the average monthly sales so far this year, there are almost 8 months of inventory on hand which would generally be considered a buyer’s market.

It has taken longer to sell a condo downtown this year with the median marketing time coming in at 73 days compared to 53 during this period last year. While there are not stats available on the median age of an active listing this time last year, the 134 day median age this year seems old, especially compared to the 73 day median marketing time.

As I mention every time I discuss the Downtown market, the new construction market is disguising the strength of the downtown market. New construction projects are taking contracts and reservations on new condominiums that will not close (nor considered a sale) until later this year and into 2018 and 2019.

Longboat Key Single Condominium Market

Longboat Key Condominium Market Stats ~May 2017

Longboat Key Condominium Market Stats ~May 2017

During May, condo sales on Longboat surpassed last year for the first time this year.  On paper, sales for the year are still down 21%. However if you remove the 16 new construction sales last year (as most were contracted during 2015), sales on existing homes are down about 14% year-to-date.

The good sales month along with lower amounts of new listings, large numbers of withdrawn and expired listings coming off the market improved inventory dramatically over last month.  At the end of May the market had about 7.7 months of supply.

LONGBOAT SINGLE FAMILY HOME MARKET

Longboat Key Single Family Home Market Stats ~May 2017

Longboat Key Single Family Home Market Stats ~May 2017

While sales here are up 20% year-to-date and inventory down about 12%, there is still a large amount of unsold inventory for the current rate of sales. Additionally median days to contract has ballooned from 89 days last year to 128 this year. The median marketing time for an unsold listing is currently 183 days.

Lakewood Ranch Single Family Homes

Lakewood Ranch Single Family Home Market Stats ~May 2017

Lakewood Ranch Single Family Home Market Stats ~May 2017

The first neighborhoods in the new Waterside Village are now taking lot reservations. Waterside is going to be huge with over 5000 homes. The property is about 5,500 acres with 80% left as open areas or lakes (mostly lakes). It is going to be hugely popular.  Initial home builders will include Arthur Rutenberg, Lee Wetherington, Homes by Towne, and Pulte.

 

West Bradenton Single Family Homes

West Bradenton Single Family Home Market Stats ~May 2017

West Bradenton Single Family Home Market Stats ~May 2017

One big month and everything looks rosy. May this year beat last year by almost 50%. Year-to-date sales are up by 7%. Unsold inventory dropped to just 216 listings or only about a 4 months supply.

 

West Bradenton Condominiums

West Bradenton Condominium Market Stats ~May 2017

West Bradenton Condominium Market Stats ~May 2017

Sales here are down about 12% from last year but mostly do to the lack of inventory, which now represents just over a 3 month supply. The median selling price of 158k is still a great value for winter visitors or small families.

 

Market Snapshots – Longboat Key, Downtown Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, and West Bradenton

Downtown Sarasota Condominium Market

 

downtown sarasota condiminium sales

Median prices are expressed in thousands of dollars

Sales are up about 14% year-to-date with inventory only up about 4%. Still, using the average monthly sales so far this year, there are almost 9 months of inventory on hand which would generally be considered a buyer’s market.

It has taken longer to sell a condo downtown this year with the median marketing time coming in at 73 days compared to 47 during this period last year. While there are not stats available on the median age of an active listing this time last year, the 114 day median age this year seems old, especially compared to the 73 day median marketing time.

Longboat Key Single Condominium Market

Longboat Key Condominium Sales

Median prices are expressed in thousands of dollars

The sales slump continues with a 42% fall off this month compared to April 2016. However, sales last April included the closings on 16 new construction residences. Sales on existing homes fell 24%. Year-to-date, sales are off a third compared to last-year.

With only a slight drop in new listings, expired listings have tripled this year, although on small numbers. Ending April unsold inventory (Active listings) was up 26%.  Using the 26 average monthly sales over the past 4 months, there is almost a year’s supply of unsold condo inventory on the market, twice the 6 months of supply this time last year.

LONGBOAT SINGLE FAMILY HOME MARKET

Longboat Key Single Family Home Sales

Median prices are expressed in thousands of dollars

Completely unaffected by whatever bug has infected the condo market on Longboat, single family homes sales are on their way to a record high year. Sales are up a third over last year while the end-of-season active listing inventory is down 8%. However, the relationship between sales in unsold inventory is still high with just over 11 months of unsold inventory on the market.

Lakewood Ranch Single Family Homes

Lakewood Ranch Single Family Home Sales

Median prices are expressed in thousands of dollars

Sales are up about 7% over last year in Lakewood Ranch. MLS unsold listings are up about 5%. I say MLS here because new construction sales will likely he higher than resales and there is no way to evaluate the amount of new construction product on the market. When there is about a 100% chance that anyone and everyone that wants to build a home in Lakewood Ranch could be accommodated, how to count inventory?

One thing to watch, especially if you are or about to be selling a home in Lakewood Ranch in the near future, will be the effect of the new Waterside Village on sales, specifically the effect on resales and new construction in the other villages. Waterside has lots of water and has been receiving loads of hype. It is also the first LWR village in Sarasota County.

West Bradenton Single Family Homes

West Bradenton Single Family Home Sales

Median prices are expressed in thousands of dollars

Sales are down about 5% with unsold inventory down about 10%. This represents about 8 months of supply, a slight advantage to buyers.

The a $300k median sales price and large lot sizes that are just a couple of miles from the beach make west Bradenton a great value. The development of 75th street south of Cortez Road could give prices in the rest of the area a boost as little to none of the new construction will be priced below $300k.

West Bradenton Condominiums

West Bradenton Condominium Sales

Median prices are expressed in thousands of dollars

Low prices/great values make west Bradenton condos about some of the fastest moving properties in the area. While sales have fallen 10% from last year on about the same about of inventory, there is still only slightly more than a 4 month supply of unsold inventory. The median time on market is just 35 days.

Downtown Sarasota Condo Market – Top Five Signs It’s Still a Seller’s Market

The information in this post pertains to Downtown Sarasota Condominium sales for the 12 months ending 9/30/16 (current year/ period) and 9/30/15 (previous year/period). All data is from the My Florida Regional MLS for the time periods mentioned, ZIP code 34228 (Downtown Sarasota), and condo property style.

Demand for Downtown Sarasota Condos is increasing

The raw numbers show sales over the past year were down 1%, compared to the previous year (329 TY vs 332 LY). As mentioned in other updates, delayed closings on new construction sales more than account for this shortfall. As of 9/30/16, there were 36 pending sales on new construction residences, where the contract date was in the current year.

While these properties were placed under contract during the current period, they will not close nor be reported as a sale until the building is ready for occupancy. The contracts, however, represent true demand during the period, even though they are not reflected in the sales figures. There are also 28 pending sales from the prior period, which understated demand during that year.  If pending sales were added into total sales for both years, then 2016 sales would be higher than 2015 by 1% (365 TY vs 360 LY).

__________________________________________________

Click box to see current Downtown Sarasota Condominiums listed for sale by price point

 Under $500k    $500k-$1,000k    $1,000k-$2,000k    over $2,000k

__________________________________________________

 The Median Sale Price of a Downtown Sarasota Condo is increasing

The median sale price of a downtown Sarasota condominium increased 14% from $442k last year to $505k this year.  Across Sarasota County, the median price of a condo only increased 8% from $190k ly to $205k ty. Clearly, “buy low / sell high” works but not as well as “buy high/ sell higher.”

 

If nothing else, this shows not every property gets painted with the same brush as prices move up or down. Properties in the most desirable areas do better in both types of markets. When prices are appreciating, markets like downtown and the barrier islands will increase more than other areas. When prices are falling, they will take less of a hit.

Click to Download Recent Downtown Sarasota Condominium Sales Addresses/Prices

17th Floor 3BR 3.5BA + Den listing for sale in Alinari located in downtown Sarasota FL

17th Floor 3BR 3.5BA listing for sale in Alinari
$1,175,000. Click here to see all photos and learn more.

Downtown Sarasota Condos are Selling More Quickly

Another sign the market is heating up is the speed at which listings sell. Last year, 33% of all sales went to contract in 30 days or less. This year, 42% of all sales took 30 days or less to get a contract. Median days to contract for all sold listings dropped accordingly from 66 days last year to just 51 days this year (down 23%).

The Average Listing Sells Very Near the List Price

Last year, the average downtown condo sold for 95% of final listing price, which is great. However, in the prior 12 months, that figure has bounced up another point to 96%, which is phenomenal.

9th floor 2BR 2BA + den residence in Alinari condominium, located in Sarasota FL

9th floor 2BR 2BA + den residence in Alinari.
$495,000 Click image to see all pictures and learn more

Most Downtown Sarasota Condos sell for Cash

Two thirds of all sales in both periods sold for cash (no financing). This is another attribute of the downtown market that supports property values. When the market crashes or interest rates rise, the owners in the downtown market will feel less pressure than those areas where more homes are mortgaged.

Sarasota Condo Market Stats June 2015

Downtown Sarasota Condo Market June 2015

Inventory and new listings continues to be the story in the downtown market (as well as the entire county). At the end of the month, there were 179 residences for sale downtown compared to a very low 202 at the same time last year. As noted in last month’s post, the 10 year record low for unsold inventory is 172 residences set in September of last year. New listings for June eked out ahead last year 33 to 28 but did little to dent the 15% shortfall over the past 12 months compared to the previous 12 month period.

Sarasota Condo Market Stats June 2015

Sarasota Condo Market Stats June 2015

The struggle in finding something under $500,000 downtown is getting impossible. As of today there are just 59 residences on the market under $500,000. Twenty seven of these have fewer than 2 bedrooms and 2 baths. If you want a 2/2 under $500,000 that was built after 1985, you currently have only 8 choices.

There are admittedly new construction residences on the market right now that are not posted in MLS, probably more in total that the 179 resales shown in MLS.  However, there are almost none priced under $500,000.

 

Condominium Market Stats for Downtown Sarasota May 2015

Downtown Sarasota Condo Market May 2015

 

Unit sales in May increased 20% over the previous year but are still down nearly 11% over the past 12 months. The decline in units sales is due to the lack of inventory. Over the course of the past year, new listings have decreased 15% over the previous 12 month period.

Condominium Market Stats for Downtown Sarasota May 2015

Downtown Sarasota Market Stats 5-31-15

The average selling price for the month of May was $682k this year compared to $798k last year. This is the result of a change in mix, due in large part to the same reason sales are down- low levels of inventory. The lack of inventory and real increase in prices is pushing buyers into smaller and older purchases (both of which are generally priced lower than larger newer/larger residences). During May of last year, 20% of unit sales were smaller than 1,000 square feet. During May of this year 24% of purchases were smaller than 1,000 square feet. Similarly, during May of last year 26% of all condos purchased in 34236 were built prior to 1980. For May 2015 37% of purchases were older than a 1980 build.

The 182 residences on the market at the end of May is not a record (the 10 year record low was 172 in September 2014), but for this time of year it is still very low. We could easily get under the 172 by September, perhaps well below it.

The average asking price of unsold inventory is up about 14% over last year. While part of this is undoubtedly real price appreciation (or the expectation of the same), mix is still playing a role here. The smaller-sized residences are starting to disappear from unsold inventory. At the end of May last year, 22% of unsold inventory was comprised of residences fewer than 2 bedrooms and 2 baths. At the end of this May, only 14% of active listings fell into that category.

Downtown Sarasota Condo Market- Apr 2015

All comments relate to 12 month figures

The best place to start this story is at the “New Listings” line in the graphic below (click image to enlarge). New listings were down 12% over the past 12 months, a situation that  impacted nearly every other statistic. Unit sales were down 14%. Expired and withdrawn listings were down 14%. Sales with 30 days or less marketing time decreased by 32% as more sales came from older listings. Average days on market for sold listings increased 17 days over last year.

Condominium Market Stats for Downtown Sarasota

Downtown Sarasota Market Stats 4-30-15

The average price increased by 8% from $620k to $668k. This is a combination of mix changes (toward higher end buildings/residences) and   appreciation. Nationally, home prices have increased 4% during this period while the Tampa and Miami Markets are up 7% and 8%, respectively (Source: Case-Shiller April 2015 release). Given the performance of these markets, 8% for Sarasota is not unrealistic.

However, mix did play a big role the change in average price.   For example, The Ritz Beach Residences and Orchid Beach Residences on Lido are two of the highest price buildings in the county. Over the past 12 months, a total of 13 residences sold in these two buildings for a total of $36.5 million. These 13 sales accounted for 17% of dollar sales during this 12 months. In the previous 12 month period, only four residences sold from the same two buildings for a total of just $9.4 million. If you look at sales in ZIP code of 34236, excluding these two buildings, then the average sale price actually dropped 4% from $601k to $578k. This could be mix as well- fewer sales coming from newer buildings, more sales from smaller residences, etc.

While downtown Sarasota is still largely an all cash market, all-cash transactions did drop from 78% of sales to 68%. The financed transactions are heavily skewed toward the lower end of the market with 80 of 103 financed sales being in transactions where sale price was less the average sale price of $668,000.

Unsold inventory remains very low at 192 residences, just 20 off the low set for the 2000’s in September 2014. This figure does not, however,  include the number of new construction residences on the market from the various new construction projects around town,which are significant. Still, all possible new construction residences included, unsold inventory is less than half the peak month of April 2007 when 706 residences were listed for sale. Additionally, there are very few new construction residences offered under $1,000,000 and virtually none under $750,000.

________________________________________________________________________________

Downtown Sarasota Condo Market

Unit sales were down for the month and down for the 12 months ended March 31. Both were due to low inventory levels and the shortage of new listings, in particular those in the under $500,000 price point which declined 33% in 2015 compared to 2014 (193 vs 293).

For the last 12 months, the average selling price was about 8% higher than the previous year. This is a combination of mix and appreciation. For the month of March, the swing in average sales price was hugely negative (down 36% to 509 vs 773 LY). This was largely a shift in the mix of sales. During March this year, nearly half of the sales (17 or 38) where studios  or 1 bedroom residences. Last March only 4 sales of the 39 total were  or studios or 1 bedroom.

(Click to Enlarge)

Downtown Sarasota Condo Market Stats - March 2015

Downtown Sarasota Condo Market Stats

Average days to contract declined to just 92 days for sales that closed in March 2015, or a decrease of 22% from last year and 28% from the 12 month period ended March 2015. During March 2015, 44% of all sales that closed were only on the market for 30 days or less compared to just 28% such sales in the previous March. On the flip side, homes in inventory at the end of the March had been on the market for 153 days on average. More than any other statistic, this shows the importance of positioning (pricing your home). You either price it right and sell it immediately or it sits in inventory for at least another 60-120 days.

For the past 12 months, new listings are down 14% from the previous 12 month period. This is the statistic that is hurting sales. With less new inventory and asking prices creeping up (faster than sales prices), sales have started to slow.

Expired and withdrawn listings are down but still high as a percentage of sales (like 40% or 4 expired listings for each 10 that sell). This is all pricing related as well – the asking price being too far ahead of the market.

Cash transactions are down both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of total transactions. Still they have represented an amazingly high 70% of sales over the past 12 months (compared to 77% in the previous 12 month period).

Sales over $1MM have been fairly constant across both time periods.