Pending sales ( new contracts executed) are the best indication of current demand. The pending report provides a current week, 4 week, and 13 week view of this important statistic across 6 different markets by price point range. The biggest difference between pendings and actual sales is timing. The contract or pending date is the date that the contract was executed. The contract is not considered a “Sale” until it closes which is, on average, about 30 days after the contract date. Of course, another difference is that not all pendings sales actually close.
This Week’s Results
Pendings were choppy across the both counties last week. Downtown Sarasota finally slowed, decreasing 1 contract or 10% compared to the same week last year. The past 4 weeks and 13 weeks are both up over 20%. One interesting trend over the past 13 weeks is that the higher the price, the larger increase in contracts over the past year.
Weekly Longboat condominium pendings doubled last year, pushing the last 4 weeks up by 1 contract. Over the last 13 weeks, however, new contracts are down 20%. Performance by price point is nearly the opposite of downtown – with the exception of the $500k-$1million range, the higher the price point the fewer the number of contracts signed compared to last year.
Lakewood Ranch was up 30% for the week and 8% for the month. Pendings over the past 13 weeks are down 24%. Note that not all new construction contracts show up in MLS and hardly any new construction, single family homes ever show up as pendings. As far as pendings in the single family home market are concerned, MLS (and the Pending Report) essentially reflect only the resale market.
In areas outside of Lakewood Ranch, this isn’t such a big deal as new construction of single family homes is not significant compared to the resale market. But in Lakewood Ranch, new construction sales are larger than the resale market. When big, new communities open for sales within Lakewood Ranch (ie like the new and huge Waterside section about to open), the resale market stalls as the new communite sucks up all of the business. Pendings will appear to plummet as the resale market loses out to the new community and contracts in the new community don’t get entered into MLS (as pendings anyway – many get entered as a sale at time of closing).
The West Bradenton single family and condominium markets both had a good 4 week run but condominium pendings are still down 24% over the past 13 weeks while single family home sales are up 8%.