Four Most Important Data Points for The Sarasota/Bradenton Real Estate Market

All data is from Stellar MLS for the years 2017-2022 and the month indicated. Unless otherwise stated, all charts include all the residential property types of single-family homes, condominiums, villas, and townhouses for Sarasota and Manatee Counties Combined. 

Inventory is Growing

Manatee and Sarasota County – Number of properties for sale by month and type Jan 2017-Dec 2022

Good News for Buyers

The number of homes available for sale started increasing in March, rising from 1,589 properties listed for sale on March 1 to 4,874 properties by the end of December. That is a 3X increase over the inventory level at the end of 2021. More inventory means price increases should slow.

Not Horrible News for Sellers

Having 3 times as many properties on the market compared to last year is generally not great for the market prices. However, 2021 inventory levels were so low that 3 times as much is still low compared to historical standards. In fact, the December 2022 levels represent a third less than what would generally be considered normal for this time of year. For example, in 2018 and 2019 (the 2 years immediately preceding the start of the pandemic), December inventory levels were 8,494 and 7,229, respectively vs the 4,874 in December 2022.

Monthly Sales are Slowing

Good News for Buyers

Monthly sales in 2022 were less than 2021 in each of the 12 months. In fact, other than the first 3 months of the pandemic (April, May, and June of 2020), sales each month in 2021 set a 5 year low for that month. This means fewer homes sold each month this year than the 2021 even though inventory was nearly 2+ times as high in most months. Higher inventory and especially lower sales should put start to slow price increase.

Not Horrible News for Sellers

While sales are historically low, inventory is also historically low. It is the relationship between these two statistics that determines whether home prices will come under pressure to increase or decrease. The more inventory available per unit of sales, the more prices will be under pressure to fall (and vice versa). A common statistic used to measure this is Months of Supply (or Months of Inventory).

As shown in the second chart, the current Months-of-Supply statistic is in the historical/normal range at around 4 months.  As long as the relationship between inventory and sales is moderate, then there should not be much pressure on prices either way.

Manatee-Sarasota County -# of sold properties by month Jan 2017-Dec 2022

Manatee-Sarasota County – # of months of supply by month Jan 2017-Dec 2022

The Median Sales Price Has Been Choppy but Currently Down about 10% from the Peak

Good News for Buyers

The median sale price for single family homes and condos is about 10% below the peak.  Whether is just insignificant chop like other months or the beginning of a downtrend is indeterminable at this point. The low-to-normal inventory levels for this time of year makes me think that it is not a long-term trend. Prices have increased significantly in a very short period of time so some small decrease in prices wouldn’t seem unlikely. Either way, it is a price reset back to March 2022 and a buying opportunity for those that have been waiting for any sort of pullback.

The Number of New Listings Hitting the Market is Low

This is the one that is most difficult to understand. The past 5 months have been the among the lowest 5 months for new listings over the past 6 years. In total, the years of 2022 and 2021 are short about 1,000 new listings per year compared to the average of the previous 4 years.

Why there are so few new listings coming on the market is anyone’s guess. My guess is that the difficulty in finding a replacement home and the fact that current interest rates are so much higher than existing mortgages are combining to keep prospective sellers in their seat.

Number of New Sarasota and Manatee County Real Estate Listing by Month from 2017-2022

Website Changes-

I am revamping and combining two websites into just one (ScottNorris.com). The links to homes for sale and sales in the past 6 months by neighborhood are located in the community pages on this site. If you don’t see your community or your neighborhood on your community page, just send me an email and I will add it.

If you have saved searches that have generated listings in the past 3 months from the site ScottNorris.info, I will move them to this site (ScottNorris.com) during the month of April or sooner and notify you this has been completed. You can continue to use the ScottNorris.info site if you like until May 30th when it will stop working. There is not much difference between the two sites, however.

Call or write with any questions.

Scott